TriForcers Andrew and Monzy have raised the stakes in the
Speedo Mankini Death Match (previously described here) . They decided that the loser of their face off at the Big Kahuna HIM this weekend will have to do his weekly hill repeats (right across from their office at Google) in a Borat Style “Mankini” (I hope I don’t have to explain to the IRS some day why a Mankini was a business expense!)
Handicapping the race:
- Monzy did a 46 minute swim at Wildflower. He’s been working on transitioning from a “bambino” style stroke to a more punchy stroke with a better catch and pull on Thursdays at the NASA pool, but overall his swim training has been a bit bare bones. The major question is how much Monzy’s new catch and pull will help him in the open water.
- Andrew did a 30 minute swim at Wildflower. His swim times in training are slightly faster now.
- ANALYSIS: Monzy may be able to narrow the gap in the swim, but probably only by a couple of minutes unless his new technique is particularly helpful under wetsuit / ocean conditions. Look for Andrew to have about a 13-14 minute lead coming out of the water.
- Monzy rode a solid 3:02 bike split at Wildflower on a hilly course that suited him well.
- Andrew went 3:15 at Wildflower.
- Analysis: Monzy’s bike is a big question mark– his camp has been holding his power numbers close to the vest. Andrew on the other hand has made a whopping 10% improvement in his threshold power since Wildflower. Also, Andrew does more time trialing in his aerobars in training as opposed to Monzy who seeks out challenging climbs on his training rides. The relatively flat course might favor Andrew’s style of training. Analysis: Andrew should close quite a bit of the gap that Monzy had coming out of T2 at Wildflower. Monzy might be able to sneak a couple of minutes away from Andrew on some of the hills, but the course is too flat for the any hills to be decisive. Look for Monzy to come off the bike 10 minutes or so behind Andrew (counting the gap after the swim) — meaning that he’ll need to run about :40 / mile faster than Andrew to close the gap!
- Monzy ran a blazing 1:31 at Wildflower on a hilly course that suits him well.
- Andrew ran 1:43 at Wildflower.
- Analysis: Monzy has a clear edge in the run– he’s a sub 3 marathoner who has lots of 40+ mile weeks of running under his belt. However, the much easier Big Kahuna course can limit the amount of time a strong runner can put into his opponent. Based on his recent running times Monzy should be able to hold sub 7 pace if he paced himself well & fueled well. Based on Andrew’s training logs he should be able to run solidly in the mid 7s for the run if he races smart & fuels well.
- Conclusion: too close to call! With Monzy’s lead on the bike likely to narrow, it’s going to come down to Monzy’s swim and Andrew’s run.